Based on the Influence Analysis of Monte Carlo Method on the Random Battery Swap Behavior of Electric Vehicles

Abstract

As number of electric vehicles continues to increase, the switching behaviour of electric vehicles is highly stochastic and will have an impact on daily loads. In this article, we use Pearson correlation coefficients to conduct correlation analysis for different switching characteristics, and obtain that the switching waiting time and SOC are important factors affecting the switching behaviour of electric vehicles. The demand model of EV stochastic switching behaviour based on Monte Carlo method was also established to simulate the impact of EV stochastic switching behaviour on daily load under different penetration rates. The results of the simulation analysis show that the stochastic switching behaviour of EVs can have an impact on the daily load, especially in high penetration scenarios, where the volatility of the load increases significantly.